ISLAMABAD (UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News – 11 March 2026) Experts in a webinar called for a gradual shift from gas to electricity and renewable energy for long-term protection.
Industrial competitiveness, as Pakistan’s industrial sector is under severe pressure due to rising global energy costs
Prices, structural inefficiencies, and political constraints.
The webinar was organized on the theme “Rising Energy Costs and the Future of Sustainable Industry in Pakistan”.
The Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) said in a press release.
Dr Sajid Amin Javed, deputy executive director of SDPI, said there was uncertainty about oil price Volatility and availability. Markets now expect three possible paths: 50% probability Prices Access US dollars $130-150 per barrel in the near term, there is a 10-20% chance that they will maintain this level for 6-8 months, and a 30-40% chance of stabilizing around $110-120 per barrel (most likely $110 as the expected average).
For Pakistan, he said this could cause inflation of 10-12% and an increase in the import bill of about $6. one billionGDP growth slowed to 2.5% to 2.8%, while the interruption of liquefied natural gas for long periods, especially in light of reliance on Qatari supplies, would impose additional pressure on energy-intensive industries.
Engineer Ubaidur Rahman Zia, head of the energy unit at SDPI, said there were three waves of impact: first, structural illness as rising energy costs and IMF-mandated reforms disrupted industries that depend on self-generation and diverted energy towards non-productive uses; Secondly, the “relief that was not”, as the February 2026 tariff reduction of nearly Rs 4 per unit was largely offset by a Fuel Duty Adjustment (FCA) of Rs 1.78, as well as a tax of Rs 1,243 per mmBtu on off-grid captive power, sparking official protests from textile exporters over competitiveness; Third, the ongoing geopolitical shock wave, as WTI oscillated from around US$75 to US$110 per barrel before stabilizing at US$84-90, indicating structural uncertainty. He called for the urgent need for policy reform, industrial electrification, and the adoption of renewable energy.
Mrs. Saleha Qureshi, Commander Pakistan SDPI’s Industrial Decarbonization Program noted that LNG prices have risen to $15.77 per mmBtu, and Pakistan imports about 80 percent of liquid fuels and 20 percent of its energy mix, adding to the vulnerability of the system.
to rise gasoline Prices, with a recent rise of around Rs 55 per litre, have pushed logistics costs up by 12%, creating a “triple shock” for industries from electricity tariffs, gas prices and raw material costs.
Syed Muhammad Osama Rizvi, Global Market and Product Strategist at essential Vision said, the country’s refining composition is not compatible with demand. Most refineries still operate using outdated water skimming technology, producing furnace oil rather than high-demand fuels such as high-speed diesel, leaving the economy dependent on imports for 40-45 percent of refined products.
Sheikh Muhammad Iqbal, former CEO of the Pakistan Textiles Council, said rising energy costs, coupled with taxes, threaten competitiveness against regional counterparts such as Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. He stressed that for Pakistan to be competitive, electricity must become cheaper and more predictable, while rationalizing tariffs, reducing inefficiencies, modernizing the grid for reliability, and accelerating the adoption of renewables, energy storage, and electric vehicle infrastructure to reduce costs in the long term, support jobs, and enhance the competitiveness of the industrial and transportation sector.
Mohamed Abdel-Rafi, of the Alternative Law Group, said industries cannot be forced to choose between an unreliable network and an expensive captive force. He stressed that long-term planning, not short-term cost shifting, is essential, with a flexible and investable network, transparent pricing, and rules that allow for efficient load management and renewable integration. He also noted the mismatch between national electricity reforms and the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF), creating policy uncertainty for investors and industries making long-term decisions on the energy transition.
Mansour Ahmed Alizi of the Policy Research Institute for Equitable Development (PRIED) outlined a two-track approach, namely rationalizing industrial tariffs and integrating renewable energy, ensuring that the grid is strengthened and that market rules allow reliable access to electricity at competitive prices.
He stressed the need for an efficient system with strong demand forecasting, clear electrification targets, and reliable planning so that investments in generation, transmission and grid resilience are made ahead of demand rather than reactively.