The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) Advisory Committee on Tuesday unanimously approved a water shortage of 15 percent in the early kharif (April-June 10) while a 5 percent shortage in the late 2026 kharif season.
Islamabad, April 7, 2026 The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) advisory committee on Tuesday unanimously approved a water shortage of 15 percent in the early kharif (April-June 10) while a 5 percent shortage in the late 2026 kharif season.
A statement issued here said that the committee that met with IRSA Chairman Amjad Saeed approved the expected water availability standards for Khareef 2026 (April-September).
However, the early fall deficit will be subject to review in the first week of May 2026. The late fall deficit has been approved at 5%.
Under the regional withdrawals expected for fall 2026, Punjab’s share will be 33.357 million acre feet (MAF), Sindh 30.403 MAF, KPK (CRBC only) 0.823 MAF, and Balochistan 2.868 MAF.
The Committee reviewed the Rabi 2025-2026 season (October-March) and noted that actual inflows remained at 21,782 MAF versus 22,016 MAF expected, reflecting a marginal shortfall of 1% and therefore generally consistent with previous expectations.
Total system storage as of 03/31/2026 was recorded at 2.307 MAF, which is significantly higher compared to last year (0.384 MAF) and the 10-year average (1.351 MAF).
System losses/gains were recorded at -0.172 MAF in Sindh region versus -1.143 MAF expected, while Jhelum-Chenab (JC) region recorded gains of +0.037 MAF versus zero expected.
During the season, downstream COTRI releases remained at 3.596 MAF. Provincial utilization remained slightly below allocations, primarily due to lower demand at the provincial level.
Inflows to the edge station are expected to be 103.30 MAF, including 24.48 MAF for early fall and 78.81 MAF for late fall, based on consensus probability scenarios. System losses in Sindh have been assessed at 25% for April and 35% for the period May 01 to June 10, and are subject to review in the first week of May based on actual observations.
In late fall, losses were estimated at 15%. In the JC region, losses of 5% were agreed upon during early fall and “zero” during late fall.
A representative of the Pakistan Meteorological Department informed that rainfall during April-June is expected to remain normal to above normal, especially in western Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, western Punjab, Gilgit-Baltistan and northern Balochistan, with the possibility of above-normal rainfall enhancing in eastern Sindh. However, temperatures are likely to remain above normal across the country, with clear anomalies occurring in northern regions.
The Committee was informed that WAPDA, at a meeting held at the Ministry of Water Resources, had made firm commitments regarding Tarbela operations.
It is confirmed that the T4 hydropower plant (45,000 cubic capacity) will be operational after 07 May 2026, while the T4 low-level outlet (LLO) will be available for wet testing around 08 May 2026 (tentative).
An additional water spillway shall become available when the tank level of RL 1,505 feet is reached, and the service spillway at RL 1,511 feet is reached.
In order to facilitate construction activities of the T5 Hydropower Project, WAPDA requested that the levels of Tarbela Reservoir be maintained below RL 1470 ft up to May 31 and below RL 1482 ft up to June 30, which the committee agreed to while cautioning that the wet cycle could be kept under consideration to keep these levels within the required demand.
WAPDA has been directed to timely inform all stakeholders of any system impacts arising due to operational constraints at Tarbela.
The Committee expressed its deep concern about the continued depletion of the live storage capacity in the Tarbela Reservoir. Live storage decreased from 5,827 MAF in May 2022 to 5,580 MAF in March 2026, according to the latest WAPDA survey.
The significant decrease of 0.148 MAF during 2025 was reported to be primarily attributable to increased sediment fluxes, beyond the trends observed over the past 15 years. Due to progress in the reservoir delta, the minimum operating level has been revised to RL 1,402 feet. Overall, Tarbela’s live storage capacity decreased by approximately 48% to date.
The Committee requested WAPDA to submit a comprehensive report on sedimentation trends and mitigation measures to the IAC.
The meeting was attended by members of IRSA, Representative of Chief Engineering Advisor (CEA), Ministry of Water Resources, Member (Water), WAPDA, Chief Meteorologist, Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Secretaries of Provincial Irrigation Departments (PIDs) of Punjab and Sindh along with their senior officials, Senior Technical Representatives from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, Director General Tarbela (WAPDA) along with Senior Officials, Directors of T4 and T5 Hydropower Projects, Representatives of Provincial Agriculture Departments, Director (Operations)/Secretary IRSA along with senior officials of the Authority.